With every passing week of December, NFL betting becomes more fun and more profitable. All 32 teams have something to play for, whether it's a top seed, a playoff spot, or a high draft pick. And with 13 weeks in the books, we have a massive sample size to work with as we research our top value bets and determine our Week 14 best bets.
Every Friday, we unveil my favorite moneyline, spread, over/under, and player prop wagers for the upcoming weekend. We run the gauntlet and handpick the best value opportunities on Caesars and SuperDraft, then tell you exactly how and why you should attack the books to make some money. And through 13 weeks, despite some bumps in the road during November, we have made plenty of money.
After we went a scorching-hot 10-3 in Week 12, we came spiraling back to Earth and went 9-10 last week. Ho-hum. Poop happens when the Bucs can't cover a five-point spread at home against the Panthers and the Chiefs manage to lose to Green Bay. It's okay, though, because we're still 102-82-1 on the season, good for a .554 winning percentage in an utterly turbulent NFL season of sports betting.
Our methods and approach remain the same each week. We maintain that sports betting is a lot like Black Jack — if you're knowledgeable, approach it the right way, and stay consistent with your strategy, you're going to win more often than you'll lose. With the right mindset, proper level of research, and consistent preparedness, we see sports betting as an investment, not a gamble — and we're loving our return on investment through 13 weeks. This thing of ours ain't just a hobby — it's a second job that allows us to punch in while we're sitting on our couch.
We're hungry for more profits as we sprint towards Christmas and the NFL Playoffs. We still have Black Friday credit card bills to pay off, Christmas gifts to buy, and oil tanks to fill. So, let's carry over our momentum and head into the Week 14 main slate with another batch of NFL moneyline, spread, over/under, and player prop bets. Let's go!
Rams (+7.5) at Ravens
We understand giving Baltimore credit for its superb defense, but this line seems to be slighting the Rams' offense so much that it's yielding major value. Matthew Stafford has returned to action, and Los Angeles has scored at least 36 points in each of its past two games (Puka power unlocked!). That includes a Week 13 date with the Browns, whose defense has made countless quarterbacks look bad this season. L.A. hung 399 total yards on Cleveland, with Stafford racking up 279 yards and three TDs. Kyren Williams — who's also back from injury — also amassed 112 all-purpose yards and a TD.
It's also worth noting that the Ravens' offense has struggled with the downfield pass this season, averaging just 207 passing yards per game. Most recently, Baltimore only managed 164 air yards against the Chargers, who have fielded one of the more generous secondaries in the NFL this season. In order to succeed, Baltimore must run early and often — a fact that plays right into the hands of Aaron Donald and the Rams' front-seven. L.A. has surrendered just 76 rushing yards per game over its past three contests, the fourth-fewest in the NFL over the past three weeks.
The Rams have also averaged 2.7 sacks per game during that span, the same amount of times per game Lamar Jackson has been taken down since Week 10. And as we all know, pressure leads to breaks — LJax and company have turned the ball over six times in three games. John Harbaugh's squad needs Mark Andrews (ankle) back before we can feel confident about Baltimore winning duels with high-octane offenses like the Rams. Take the points and root for the road cover.
SCORE PREDICTION: Ravens 27, Rams 24
Lions -0.5 (1Q) at Bears (+118)
Detroit got back into the swing of things in New Orleans last week, at least on offense. The Lions put up 33 points — a whopping 21 of which came in the first quarter — against a Saints D that had previously allowed just 20.2 points per game through 11 contests.
We love Jared Goff and company in Chicago this week, and not just because the Bears have surrendered the fifth-most points in the NFL this season. Dan Campbell's Lions have also averaged 7.2 first-quarter points per game, the second-most in the league. This feels like a layup.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Lions 7, Bears 3 (1Q); Lions 27, Bears 20 (final)
Other Week 14 spreads we like: Saints -4.5 vs. Panthers (-110); Seahawks +13 at 49ers (-110); Eagles +3.5 at Cowboys (-115)
Vikings (-150) at Raiders
Justin Jefferson will make his triumphant return to the field this weekend, just in time for a juicy matchup against a Raiders team that has allowed 257.8 passing yards per game since Halloween weekend (and that's despite Vegas playing the Jets and Giants during that five-game stretch!). Jefferson vs. Davante Adams should be a treat — get the popcorn ready!
Josh Dobbs hasn't looked pretty lately — the turnovers have been plentiful — but J-Jettas should help the QB's stock rise back up like a rocket ship (sorry, puns are way too easy when you're talking about a rocket scientist quarterback). Jefferson's presence should also take some pressure off the pocket and shore up some space for Vikings RB Alexander Mattison.
After an exciting start to the Antonio Pierce era, Vegas has averaged just 15.3 points per game over its past three contests. Go with Minnesota to come away victorious this weekend and remain firmly entrenched in the bottom-half of the NFC playoff picture.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Vikings 23, Raiders 20
Other Week 14 moneylines we like: Browns (-150) vs. Jaguars; Buccaneers (+110) at Falcons; Chargers (-140) vs. Broncos
Texans OVER 18.5 points at Jets (-110)
We get it — the Jets' defense is sweet. But Rookie of the Year frontrunner C.J. Stroud and the Texans' offense has been even sweeter. It's also possible oddsmakers have started overrating New York's ability to stifle above-average passing teams, while underrating its ineptitude at QB. Even Gang Green endures some struggles when its offense struggles to hold onto the ball and does little to nothing to stay competitive.
The Jets' five-game losing streak paints a vivid picture you could call "Pretender, not Contender." They lost to Desmond Ridder and the Falcons 13-8 at home last week and lost to Aidan O'Connell and the Raiders 16-12 a few weeks back. More notably, they have been trounced by the Bills, Dolphins, and Chargers by 26, 21, and 21, respectively.
Stroud has played just as well as (if not better than) Josh Allen and Justin Herbert, and DeMeco Ryans' team is very much a contender. Losing sensational rookie wideout Tank Dell to injury obviously hurts, but Nico Collins and Noah Brown have plenty of playmaking ability themselves. Bet Houston to score 19 or more points at MetLife.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Texans 23, Jets 16
Other Week 14 over/unders we like: Bears vs. Lions: OVER 43 (-110); Packers OVER 21.5 at Giants (-110)
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions at Bears — OVER 73.5 rushing + receiving yards
We’re not reading too much into Gibbs seeing just 10 touches against the Saints last week, especially considering the rookie averaged 7.5 yards per carry while veteran David Montgomery managed just 3.1 YPC (Gibbs finished with four more rushing yards on the day despite garnering 10 fewer attempts than his counterpart).
Both backs should be busy throughout the day against the Bears, who have allowed an NFL-high 59.4 receiving yards to RBs this season. When Detroit and Chicago last met on Nov. 19, Gibbs had 59 receiving yards, 36 rushing yards, and a TD. Don’t be surprised if the rook comes close to duplicating that 95-yard performance this weekend.
MORE SUPERDRAFT DFS & FANTASY PROPS: How to play SuperDraft
Joe Mixon, RB, Bengals vs. Colts — OVER 62.5 rushing yards
With Jake Browning under center, the Bengals have been even more reliant on their veteran running back than usual. Mixon finished a massive Week 13 victory over the Jaguars with 117 all-purpose yards and two TDs. Now he draws a home game against a Colts D that has surrendered over 105 rushing yards per game to RBs, fifth-most in the NFL. Mixon has logged 68-plus yards in two of the past three weeks — and he has bested 62 in six of 12 games on the season. This seems like an easy OVER for us.
Jerome Ford, RB, Browns vs. Jaguars — OVER 45.5 rushing yards
Ford had a frustrating Week 13, turning nine carries into just 19 yards against an underrated Rams run D. But the young back still made quite the impact, catching three passes for 33 yards and a score. We like Ford to run tough again at home against a beatable Jacksonville rushing defense that just surrendered 156 rushing yards to the Bengals last week. Joe Flacco brings veteran game-management skills to this Cleveland team, but the running game remains its core identity. Bet on Ford with volume against a banged-up Jags team that will struggle to win the time of possession battle.
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